ESPN staff
The Week 1 NFL schedule for the 2022 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football intel, as well. Finally, Seth Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 1 slate, including Baker Mayfield facing his old team, Pittsburgh kicking off its post-Ben Roethlisberger era in Cincinnati, Patrick Mahomes vs. Kyler Murray and the Bucs meeting the Cowboys in Texas. It all culminates with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Broncos and the Seahawks — Russell Wilson‘s return to Seattle — on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
NE-MIA | PHI-DET | CLE-CAR
JAX-WSH | NO-ATL | PIT-CIN
SF-CHI | BAL-NYJ | IND-HOU
KC-ARI | GB-MIN | LV-LAC
NYG-TEN | TB-DAL | DEN-SEA
Thursday: BUF 31, LAR 10
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: MIA -3.5 (46.5)
What to watch for: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has never lost to the Patriots in three career games, even though he hasn’t been particularly impressive in any of those starts, throwing for 456 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. But on the other side of things, Patriots coach Bill Belichick has never lost four straight games to the same opponent during his tenure with New England. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Bold prediction: Former Dolphins wideout DeVante Parker will score a touchdown in his Patriots debut. The Dolphins’ No. 2 cornerback spot opposite Xavien Howard is a question mark with Byron Jones on the reserve/PUP list, and Parker has led the NFL in tight-window catches over the past five seasons (less than 1 yard of separation), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: Patriots quarterback Mac Jones lost the 2021 season’s opening and closing games to the Dolphins, the only team that beat Jones multiple times during his first NFL regular season. Jones posted a 44.7 Total QBR with two passing touchdowns and an interception in those contests.
What to know for fantasy: Will Tyreek Hill‘s fast-starting ways carry over to Miami? The receiver’s top two games last season came in the first month, and he scored in each of his first four games in the 2020 season. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Patriots are 7-8 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs since Tom Brady went to Tampa Bay. Overall, Belichick is 55-30-1 ATS as an underdog with the Patriots. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 24, Patriots 20
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 31, Patriots 10
FPI prediction: MIA, 51.1% (by an average of 0.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Aikman on what Jones and Brady have in common … The clock is ticking on Tua: How he’s changed, and why there’s confidence in Miami … Patriots left early for South Florida to ‘get acclimated to the conditions’
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: PHI -4 (49)
What to watch for: Detroit was embarrassed 44-6 at home during last season’s Week 8 matchup with the Eagles, which is certainly in the back of the team’s mind. Quarterback Jared Goff even said the Lions “owe them one.” The Lions’ offseason saw them add key players on offense, including receiver DJ Chark, but is this a different team? Sunday offers Detroit’s first real test. “There’s no more standing outside waiting for the gates to open, man,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said. “We’re going in, and so now there’s nowhere to run.” — Eric Woodyard
Bold prediction: Eagles running back Miles Sanders will score two touchdowns. If you don’t think that’s bold, look at his stat line from last season: 137 rushes, 754 yards and 0 TDs. Not only is he due, but he’s running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league and against a Lions defense that finished 28th against the run in 2021, allowing 135 yards per game. Sanders missed time this summer because of a hamstring injury but practiced in full this week. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts completed 77% of his passes in last season’s opener (27-of-35 in a 32-6 win over Atlanta), the best completion percentage by an Eagles QB with at least 15 attempts in an opener.
What to know for fantasy: Amon-Ra St. Brown was the fantasy darling down the stretch of last season, but the Lions’ receiver opens this season with healthy teammates and a date with an Eagles defense that ranked second in preventing WR fantasy points in 2021. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Lions’ past 11 games in Week 1 have gone over the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Eagles 34, Lions 24
Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Lions 14
FPI prediction: PHI, 65.8% (by an average of 4.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Eagles RB Sanders is ‘ready to go’ after injury … Lions place guard Vaitai on injured reserve … Okudah’s recovery from Achilles injury aided by family, unlikely friends
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CAR -2 (42)
What to watch for: Look no further than the battle between Panthers rookie left tackle Ikem Ekwonu and Browns defensive end Myles Garrett. For Carolina quarterback Baker Mayfield to have a chance against his former team, Ekwonu — the sixth pick of the 2022 draft — must hold his own against the league’s third-ranked player in sacks (16) last season. — David Newton
Bold prediction: Mayfield will turn the ball over twice in the first quarter — but then throw two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to give the Panthers a chance for a comeback against his former team in Cleveland. It might take Mayfield, who went 29-30 in 59 career starts with the Browns, a little time to settle in. — Jake Trotter
0:33
Mike Clay wonders if Baker Mayfield can salvage his fantasy football value with the Carolina Panthers.
Stat to know: Jacoby Brissett will be the Browns’ starting quarterback in place of suspended Deshaun Watson. Brissett is 14-23 in his career as a starter, but he is looking to win three straight starts for the second time in his career (2019). However, he did lose his only other season-opening start — in 2019 while with the Colts.
What to know for fantasy: Over the past two seasons, Panthers receiver Robbie Anderson‘s target rate is similar when running back Christian McCaffrey is on the field versus off of it, but when the All-Pro running back is on the field, Anderson’s catch rate spikes from 57.6% to 72.1%. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Carolina went 2-12 both ATS and outright in its last 14 games of the 2021 season. Overall, the Panthers were 5-12 ATS last season, tied with the Jaguars for the worst mark in the NFL. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Browns 31, Panthers 17
Walder’s pick: Panthers 23, Browns 20
FPI prediction: CAR, 59.4% (by an average of 2.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Browns claim Mond off waivers to be third QB … Mayfield: No built-in animosity ahead of Week 1 game Browns
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: WSH -2.5 (44)
What to watch for: The quarterback matchup features the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft (Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence) and the No. 2 selection in 2016 (Washington’s Carson Wentz). But there are questions about both of them. As a rookie, Lawrence threw 12 touchdowns but turned the ball over 22 times. And we just saw Wentz traded for a second consecutive offseason. What will matter more Sunday: a new coach for Lawrence in Doug Pederson, or a new start for Wentz in Washington? — John Keim
Bold prediction: Wentz will redeem himself from last season’s Week 18 debacle against the Jaguars with 300 passing yards and two TD throws. The Jaguars sacked Wentz six times and intercepted him once in the 2021 finale when Wentz was playing for the Colts. Even though the Jags’ pass rush is expected to be much better this year with the addition of Travon Walker and Arden Key, the Commanders’ offensive line is pretty good and will keeps those guys (and Josh Allen) at bay enough for Wentz to beat his former coach (Doug Pederson). — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: The Jaguars had 29 turnovers last season, tied for the second most in the NFL. They were also outscored by 204 points, worst in the NFL and in franchise history, and never scored more than 26 points in a game.
Injuries: Jaguars | Commanders
What to know for fantasy: Commanders running back Antonio Gibson quietly ranked eighth in opportunities per game last season (rushes and targets) and finds himself in a matchup against a Jags defense that allowed a touchdown on 4.1% of RB carries a season ago, the sixth-highest rate. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Washington is 1-5 ATS in September games under coach Ron Rivera, including 0-3 ATS last season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 27, Commanders 24
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 21, Commanders 19
FPI prediction: WSH, 61.7% (by an average of 3.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: What do we know about Lawrence heading into Year 2? … Wentz more comfortable than ever, but will his game change? … Robinson might get heavy workload vs. Commanders
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: NO -5.5 (42)
What to watch for: This is, in many ways, a second-chance game. It’s the second time around debut for Saints coach Dennis Allen, who was 8-28 from 2012 to ’14 with the Raiders and began his NFL coaching career with four seasons as a defensive assistant in Atlanta. It’s also the second time around as a starter for Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota, the No. 2 pick in the 2015 draft who spent four-plus seasons as the starter in Tennessee, completing 62.9% of his passes for 76 touchdowns and 44 interceptions. He will face the No. 1 pick of that 2015 draft, Jameis Winston, who is beginning his second season as the starter for the Saints. — Michael Rothstein
Bold prediction: Wide receiver Michael Thomas will catch at least four passes almost two years to the day since he injured his ankle against the Buccaneers to start the 2020 season. Thomas’ status has been up in the air as he recovers from both his ankle injury and a recent hamstring injury, but if his recent comments are any indication, he’s ready to again be one of the game’s best receivers. Thomas and Winston have barely had any snaps together, so there’s sure to be rust, but watch for Winston to target Thomas early and often. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: Saints edge rusher Cameron Jordan has 23 career sacks against the Falcons, second most all time against Atlanta behind Kevin Greene’s 28.5 (sacks became official for individual players in 1982). According to Elias Sports Bureau research, Jordan’s 23 are the most sacks by any active player against a single team.
What to know for fantasy: Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts averaged just 0.23 fantasy points per route run against the Saints last season, down nearly 37% from his rate against the rest of the NFL. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Falcons are 0-6 ATS in Week 1 over the past six seasons, and they were 0-4 ATS as home underdogs last season. Furthermore, the Saints have covered in four of the past five meetings and 15 of the past 23 meetings. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Falcons 21, Saints 20
Walder’s pick: Falcons 17, Saints 13
FPI prediction: NO, 69.8% (by an average of 6.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: With a stacked WR corps, Winston learning to adapt … The coaches who shaped the offensive mind of Falcons coach Smith
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CIN -6.5 (44.5)
What to watch for: Cincinnati’s revamped offensive line will get a massive test in the season-opener. Pittsburgh’s defensive front features outside linebacker T.J. Watt, last season’s Defensive Player of the Year, and a new upgrade with linebacker Myles Jack. After bringing in La’el Collins, Alex Cappa and Ted Karras, Cincinnati is looking for a massive improvement; it surrendered 55 sacks in the 2021 regular season, which ranked 30th in the NFL. — Ben Baby
Bold prediction: The Steelers will win the turnover battle. To have a chance against the defending AFC champs, the Steelers must put an emphasis on both taking care of and taking away the football. The secondary has been active throughout camp in intercepting its own quarterbacks, priming it for a big opening weekend against the Bengals’ Joe Burrow. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase had the second-most receiving yards by a rookie in NFL history (1,455) last season, trailing only Bill Groman’s 1,473 in 1960.
What to know for fantasy: Pittsburgh running back Najee Harris averaged under 4.0 yards per carry last season and was even worse against the Bengals. On 22 carries over two games, he had 63 yards — and he failed to gain even 5 yards on 20 of those carries. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Steelers road games are 38-17-1 to the under since 2015. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bengals 31, Steelers 30
Walder’s pick: Bengals 23, Steelers 16
FPI prediction: CIN, 78.0% (by an average of 9.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Trubisky voted a Steelers captain, listed as starting QB on depth chart … Trubisky, the Steelers and what it’s like to be a caretaker quarterback
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: SF -6.5 (40.5)
What to watch for: Quarterbacks Trey Lance (San Francisco) and Justin Fields (Chicago) were taken eight picks apart in the first round of the 2021 draft, and Sunday will be the first head-to-head meeting between them. Fields said he doesn’t take the 49ers passing on him personally, nor does he believe it adds any motivation for him. The QBs are the main draw in the season opener, but Chicago will be hoping the newly laid turf at Soldier Field doesn’t steal the spotlight after becoming a story for all the wrong reasons during the preseason. — Courtney Cronin
Bold prediction: Niners defensive end Nick Bosa will post three sacks. Bosa had two sacks in a Week 8 win against the Bears last year, and though Chicago worked to bolster its offensive line in the offseason, there aren’t proven tackles at either spot equipped to slow Bosa. The Bears will undoubtedly throw multiple blockers Bosa’s way, but his freedom to flip sides on any given play will give him enough opportunities to get his second-career hat trick. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: San Francisco receiver Deebo Samuel has 11 career rushing TDs — including eight in 2021 — for the most by any wide receiver since 1950. He lined up as running back on 58 plays in 2021, by far the most of any WR.
1:32
Mike Clay explains why he’s willing to put lots of fantasy stock in Deebo Samuel.
What to know for fantasy: The Lions. The Texans. The Bears. That’s your entire list of defenses that allowed more yards per deep pass attempt than the 49ers last season. Chicago receiver Darnell Mooney had multiple deep catches in seven different games last season and now has the WR1 role all to himself with Allen Robinson II in Los Angeles. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Bears were 0-5 ATS as home underdogs last season and 3-10 ATS as underdogs overall. Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 34, Bears 14
Walder’s pick: 49ers 24, Bears 13
FPI prediction: SF, 65.8% (by an average of 4.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: It’s finally time for Lance to be the guy for the 49ers … Getting healthy at right time, Bears practice with all projected starters on offense … Offensive line, secondary two potential caveats to 49ers’ Super Bowl aspirations … Why some believe Fields will bounce back after rookie struggles
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BAL -7 (44.5)
What to watch for: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson faces the man he succeeded in 2018, Joe Flacco, who is now the Jets’ temporary QB1 while Zach Wilson recovers from arthroscopic knee surgery. Jackson could be rusty after not playing in the preseason — his contract negotiations dominated the headlines — but you have to believe his playmaking ability will eventually create problems for the Jets. Flacco, 37, has lost 14 of his past 16 starts. The former Super Bowl MVP has defeated every team except the Ravens and Seahawks. — Rich Cimini
Bold prediction: Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews will set a career-high with 150 receiving yards. Jackson is going to rely on his favorite target even more with receiver Marquise Brown getting traded to Arizona and top running back J.K. Dobbins (knee) not being at full strength. The Jets allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends last season (1,113), giving up at least 100 to Kyle Pitts, Rob Gronkowski and Dallas Goedert. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Jackson threw five touchdown passes in his only other career start against the Jets (Week 15 in 2019), tied for most in a game in his career and tied for the most in a game in Ravens history.
What to know for fantasy: The Jets’ defense was bottom five in both yards allowed per pass attempt and yards allowed per completion last season, making this a golden opportunity for Ravens receiver Rashod Bateman to pay off the preseason hype that came his way after Brown was traded to Arizona. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Baltimore coach John Harbaugh is 10-4 ATS in Week 1 games, including 5-1 ATS over the past six seasons. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Ravens 36, Jets 17
Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Jets 13
FPI prediction: BAL, 73.5% (by an average of 7.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jackson sets Friday deadline to suspend talks on deal extension … Honeymooners, no more: Why 2022 is big for Jets’ Saleh, Douglas
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: IND -7.5 (45.5)
What to watch for: The Colts outscored the Texans 62-3 in two matchups last season, but they haven’t won a season-opening game since 2013. This matchup will boil down to who can control the trenches, as both teams want to run the ball. The Colts have Jonathan Taylor, who led the NFL in rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18) in 2021, while the Texans have supreme belief in fourth-round running back Dameon Pierce. Taylor posted at least 140 rushing yards and a pair of TDs in both games against Houston last season. — DJ Bien-Aime
Bold prediction: Nyheim Hines will be the Colts’ leading receiver in the game, a projection based on the Colts’ stated intentions to get him an increased number of touches this season. Hines, technically a running back, performed the role of a traditional slot receiver extensively during training camp and figures to be heavily involved as a pass-catcher. — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: Houston quarterback Davis Mills had four games with 300-plus passing yards last season, most among rookie quarterbacks.
What to know for fantasy: Since 2013, a rookie RB has gotten at least 19 touches in Week 1 nine times. In eight of those instances, that back either scored or surpassed 125 total yards. Houston’s Pierce finds himself in that spot and saw his average draft position rise as much as any other player during the preseason. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Home underdogs in divisional games are 13-2-1 ATS in Week 1 over the past 10 seasons. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Colts 38, Texans 21
Walder’s pick: Colts 30, Texans 20
FPI prediction: IND, 72.5% (by an average of 7.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Leonard says he’s on track for first pain-free season since rookie year … ‘Talk can’t get it done’: Texans motivated to set tone with redemption against Colts … Can Gilmore recapture All-Pro form with Colts? … Texans dynamic duo of Cooks and Mills ‘striving’ for perfection
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: KC -6 (53.5)
What to watch for: Both quarterbacks — Arizona’s Kyler Murray and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes — will have favorable matchups Sunday. Each will be facing a cornerback unit ripe for the picking; the Chiefs’ corps is young, while the Cardinals’ group is thin on depth and experience. And Mahomes is typically fantastic in September, where his 86.6 Total QBR is the best of any player in a calendar month since the metric’s debut in 2006. Expect the ball to be thrown a lot. — Josh Weinfuss
Bold prediction: Chiefs receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster will catch 100 yards worth of passes. Mahomes has thrived in four career games without Tyreek Hill, throwing eight touchdowns with no interceptions and compiling a QBR of 78.6. Smith-Schuster is the top candidate among Chiefs wide receivers for a big game after he had a strong training camp. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Murray has 20 career rushing touchdowns, the second most among QBs since he entered NFL in 2019 (Josh Allen, 23). And the Chiefs allowed seven such TDs to QBs last season, the most in the NFL.
What to know for fantasy: Cardinals running back James Conner was the only player with four games in the second half of last season with at least five catches and a rushing TD. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Under coach Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals are 3-0 ATS in Week 1 games and 17-7 ATS in September/October. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 36, Cardinals 30
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 34, Cardinals 30
FPI prediction: KC, 54.0% (by an average of 1.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why the Chiefs’ defense can’t start slow yet again … Cardinals place QB McCoy on IR, promote McSorley to back up Murray … Mahomes confirms Chiefs’ balanced WR approach
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: GB -2 (47)
What to watch for: Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has lit up the Vikings like no other team in his career. His touchdown-to-interception ratio against them (56-to-7) is the best for any qualified quarterback against a single opponent in NFL history, according to Elias Sports Bureau. But his statistical performances haven’t always led to victories; he is 15-10-1 overall against the Vikings. If the Vikings win Sunday, Kirk Cousins will become the first quarterback ever to defeat Rodgers in three consecutive games. — Kevin Seifert
Bold prediction: The Vikings will end one of Rodgers’ most remarkable streaks by picking him off at least once. Rodgers has thrown 38 touchdown passes without an interception against NFC North teams since the start of the 2020 season. According to Elias Sports Bureau research, that’s the longest streak of passing TDs without an interception in divisional games in NFL history. But he’s breaking in a new group of receivers, and timing could be an issue early on. Don’t be surprised if ex-Packers edge rusher Za’Darius Smith factors into a turnover, whether it’s with a quarterback pressure or a tipped pass. — Rob Demovsky
1:16
Liz Loza explains the factors that have led her to putting Aaron Rodgers at QB10 overall.
Stat to know: Cousins has four career games with at least 300 passing yards and three passing TDs against the Packers, tied with Drew Brees for the second most by any player versus the Packers all time (Matthew Stafford, five).
What to know for fantasy: How lucky do you feel? Minnesota receiver Adam Thielen has scored north of 22 fantasy points in four of his past eight meetings with the Packers. That said, he has also failed to score even six points three times against Green Bay over that stretch. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: The past four meetings between these teams all went over the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Vikings 24, Packers 21
Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Vikings 17
FPI prediction: GB, 65.3% (by an average of 4.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: How NBA Bucks trip helped Packers coach LaFleur’s football education … Vikings coach O’Connell prioritized health over intensity this summer — will it work? … Packers’ defense looks good on paper, but on the field, ‘it looks even better’
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: LAC -3.5 (52)
What to watch for: The Chargers spent money and resources during the offseason to bolster their defense, trading for pass-rusher Khalil Mack and signing cornerback J.C. Jackson and defensive linemen Sebastian Joseph-Day, Austin Johnson and Morgan Fox in free agency. They will find out if their investments paid off against a Raiders offense they couldn’t stop in a critical season-ending moment in 2021. Las Vegas now has receiver Davante Adams, and there is a possibility the Chargers will be without Jackson as he recovers from ankle surgery. — Lindsey Thiry
Bold prediction: Adams will set a career record with 22 targets in his first NFL game with former college teammate Derek Carr. Adams had 123 receptions last season, most in NFL history by a player who then began the following season on a different team. He was targeted 21 times in a Packers loss to the Lions in 2015, so he has seen this kind of volume before. And Carr targeted tight end Darren Waller 19 times in last season’s opener. — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: Keenan Allen has 100-plus receiving yards in three of the past four season-openers.
What to know for fantasy: Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert has averaged 23.3 fantasy points per game in 12 career divisional matchups. He has thrown for more than 310 yards in three of four games against the Raiders, too, racking up 10 TD passes against just one interception in the process. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Chargers’ past nine September games have gone under the total, but their final six games last season all went over the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chargers 37, Raiders 27
Walder’s pick: Chargers 31, Raiders 23
FPI prediction: LAC, 61.0% (by an average of 3.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Adams finds his bliss en route to the Raiders … The five biggest questions facing the 2022 Chargers … Former Raiders first-rounder Ferrell thinks new scheme ‘can make me flourish’
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: TEN -5.5 (43.5)
What to watch for: Giants defensive coordinator Don Martindale’s aggressive blitz packages will test the protection rules for the Titans’ offensive line that features two new starters. The Titans have spent extra time in protection meetings to prepare the line for Martindale, whose blitz percentage with the Ravens was tops in the NFL for three seasons before finishing sixth last year. Additionally, Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill and his new group of pass-catchers have worked diligently to fine-tune their sight adjustments so they can get quick completions against New York’s defense. — Turron Davenport
Bold prediction: Titans running back Derrick Henry will run for 150-plus yards. The King rushed for more than 150 yards in two of the first four games last season. He’s healthy after recovering from a foot injury and faces last season’s 25th-ranked run defense. The Giants didn’t bring in any major reinforcements up front and released starting middle linebacker Blake Martinez just last week. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: Giants running back Saquon Barkley eclipsed 100 scrimmage yards 20 times in his first two seasons (29 games played), tied for the second-most games in the NFL over that span. But he has more than 100 scrimmage yards just twice in his past two seasons (15 games played).
What to know for fantasy: Each of Henry’s 14 best fantasy games (PPR) have come in Titans victories. Tennessee is a heavy favorite at home against a Giants team that allowed the seventh-most points to opposing RBs last season. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Giants are 0-5 outright and ATS in their past five Week 1 games — and they are 0-6 ATS in their past six games as an underdog. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Titans 20, Giants 13
Walder’s pick: Giants 19, Titans 16
FPI prediction: TEN, 76.2% (by an average of 8.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Redemption season for a more vocal Barkley? … Tannehill using playoff letdown as ‘fuel’ heading into new season … Can Golladay and Toney turn the corner this season? … Titans’ ‘plan’ for Henry has different offseason approach for star RB … Shepard ‘ready to go’ in Week 1 after Achilles injury late in 2021 season
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: TB -2.5 (51)
What to watch for: Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady will become the first quarterback to start a game at 45 years old, and he does so after leading the NFL in passing yards (5,316) and passing TDs (43) last season. He has also never lost to the Cowboys (6-0). The only other quarterback with a minimum of five starts to be undefeated against Dallas is Hall of Famer Joe Montana (5-0). But the Cowboys have won six of their past nine season-openers at home. — Todd Archer
Bold prediction: Brady will throw for two touchdowns, the Bucs will add two more on the ground, and Brady will get his first season-opening win on the road since 2013. Brady is 15-4 in his career in season-openers as a starting quarterback, the fourth-best QB record in the Super Bowl era for players with a minimum of five starts. And several people within the Bucs organization believe that even with his 11-day absence during training camp, he looks ready for another great season. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: No team played more man coverage than the Cowboys last season at 62%. Dallas returns seven of its top nine defensive backs by snaps played from last season. In last season’s Week 1 meeting, it allowed Brady to throw four TDs against its man coverage but did not allow more than two passing touchdowns against man coverage in any other game.
Injuries: Buccaneers | Cowboys
What to know for fantasy: Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans has been a fantasy disappointment to start each of the past three seasons. Over that stretch of Week 1 games, he has managed just six catches and 54 yards total on his 118 routes. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is 15-9-1 ATS as a regular-season underdog, including 5-2-1 ATS as a home underdog. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 31, Cowboys 23
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 26, Cowboys 17
FPI prediction: TB, 62.5% (by an average of 3.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Answering the biggest questions about Brady’s 2022 season … Cowboys’ Parsons says Brady ‘inspires me’ ahead of rematch with Bucs … Short-handed already on offensive line, Buccaneers lose Hainsey and Leverett … Prescott: Cowboys ready to prove doubters wrong this season
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | Spread: DEN -6.5 (44.5)
What to watch for: After racking up the most wins over a player’s first 10 seasons in NFL history (113, including playoffs), former Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson begins the second act of his career with the Broncos. His Denver debut comes against his former team, which traded him in March in one of the biggest blockbusters the league has ever seen. Wilson will be the Broncos’ sixth different starting QB in their past six openers. — Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: Broncos outside linebacker Bradley Chubb will have his first two-sack game since 2020. He has had his healthiest offseason since his rookie year in 2018 and is poised for a big year, and Randy Gregory‘s arrival should give Chubb a little more room to work. Chubb has battled injuries in two of the past three seasons, including two ankle surgeries in 2021. He has had just four multi-sack games in his career, and just one of those — a 2.5 sack effort against the Jets in 2020 — has come since his rookie year. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: Wilson has a 10-3 (.769) record on Monday Night Football in his career, the third best by a starting quarterback with 10-plus starts.
What to know for fantasy: From 2019 to ’21, Wilson averaged 22.4% more fantasy points per game at home than on the road. But this is a road game in the place he has called home for his entire career. See Week 1 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Seahawks are 17-7 as home underdogs under coach Pete Carroll, including 14-3 ATS when getting at least three points. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Broncos 30, Seahawks 13
Walder’s pick: Broncos 27, Seahawks 9
FPI prediction: DEN, 66.7% (by an average of 5.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Wilson’s arrival helped keep Jackson with Broncos, and that could be a key move … Inside the Wilson-Seahawks drama that led to the Broncos trade … Broncos hope Wilson will help turn Jeudy’s potential into touchdowns … Despite doubters of his Seahawks, Carroll envisions ‘nothing but good stuff happening’