When it comes to NHL debates, “small sample size” is the most reliable counterargument.
If there’s a team off to a blazing start, showing signs of being an unexpected Stanley Cup contender? “Small sample size.” If there’s a team that isn’t delivering on its hype? “Small sample size.”
The same goes for players. Every team has a player that’s put up impressive numbers in a small sliver of the season. The question is whether their domination will eventually fade or if these starts are a snapshot of what’s to come.
Here are the small-sample superstars for all 32 NHL teams, from goalies stonewalling opponents to skaters on points-per-game benders.
Atlantic Division
Bruins coach Jim Montgomery loves his structure but admits “when you have special players like Lindholm, they’re going to do stuff that’s off the team structure, but that’s why they’re special.” In other words, the Boston defenseman has the green light to create offensively and create he has, to the tune of 13 points in 13 games to start the season.
Will it continue? Lindholm hasn’t averaged more than one assist per 60 minutes since his second season in the NHL (2014-15). Through 13 games, he’s averaging 1.7 assists. He hasn’t averaged over two points per 60 minutes in his career. He’s averaging 2.5 points now. We’re going to assume there’s some regression headed his way and that Charlie McAvoy could usurp him on the top power-play unit when he’s back in the lineup.
In which we ask if a player can win the Norris Trophy in 12 games. Dahlin had 15 points to start the season while skating an average of 25:54 per game, which would be a new career high if it holds. Last season’s 53-point performance might have been the breakout, but this has been the leap to stardom for the 2018 No. 1 overall pick.
Will it continue? Yes. Dahlin is doing it with his offense, including terrific shot generation. But defensively he has been just as good: The Sabres get 54.4% of the shot attempts and give up just 1.45 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 when Dahlin is on the ice.
On the list of high-profile additions for the Red Wings in the offseason, Kubalik might not have had the juice that David Perron or Andrew Copp had. What he has instead: 15 points in his first 12 games, tying Dylan Larkin for the team lead.
Will it continue? Kubalik had the reputation as a streaky scorer when he played with the Blackhawks — six points in 10 games to start last season but then one point in the next 11, for example. That said, he has shot around 20% in his career before and could do it again.
So far, Tkachuk is the star player the Panthers thought they were getting when they traded Jonathan Huberdeau to the Flames and got Tkachuk on that eight-year contract extension. Through 12 games, he had 17 points and pumped 63 shots on goal. He was also suspended for hitting Kings goalie Jonathan Quick in the face with his stick, because the Panthers were also getting that, too.
Will it continue? Absolutely. Tkachuk found another level last season with 104 points in 82 games, including 42 goals. Look at what Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm have done without him so far. Tkachuk is for real, and the Panthers have 66.3% of the expected goals with him on the ice.
There was much surprise at the 2022 draft when the host Montreal Canadiens traded a 2022 first-round and third-round pick for the 21-year-old who had struggled to find his groove with the Blackhawks. He’s finding it in Montreal, with 10 points in 12 games.
Will it continue? Dach has looked good playing with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield on the Habs’ top line. He’s averaging just over a shot more per game than last season. He’s picking up points. Coach Martin St. Louis has praised his efforts. A change might have done him good.
Pinto continued to lead all rookies heading into Tuesday night with six goals in 11 games, but with only one assist on the season. The 21-year-old center has spread out his production, scoring in six of 11 games.
Will it continue? Pinto was the Calder Trophy favorite in our first NHL Awards Watch this season. He has some talented company in the freshman scoring race with players like Matty Beniers, Mason McTavish and Cole Perfetti, so that might not hold. His production with the Senators will depend on usage: Does he see more time with someone like Alex DeBrincat or someone like Tyler Motte?
He’s doing it again. The former Hart Trophy winner has 20 points in his first 12 games this season to lead the Bolts, and was tied for sixth in the NHL in even-strength points in that span. He has been skating with Brandon Hagel and Brayden Point, but really he could skate with me and put up points, and I’m like playing with a guy using a pool noodle for a stick.
Will it continue? That 1.67 points-per-game average probably isn’t going to hold, but keep in mind that Kucherov averaged 1.56 points per game in 2018-19.
Tavares is now 32 years old and is off to a blazing start with 15 points in 13 games, including eight goals. His production has become both an assumption — he has not been under 2.9 points per 60 minutes since 2016-17 with the Islanders — and overshadowed by his younger star teammates. The old guy (comparatively) has still got it!
Will it continue? That four points per 60 minutes average isn’t likely to remain at that level, but it might not drop that precipitously if he has found a line with William Nylander and Nick Robertson that clicks.
Metropolitan Division
Sometimes it’s the trades don’t make that pay off. There was speculation in the offseason that the Hurricanes might move Necas, both because of their own needs and because the restricted free agent hadn’t broken out yet. He signed a two-year bridge contract with Carolina and, behold, the breakout might be happening: 17 points in 12 games for a player whose career best is 41 points.
Will it continue? His 1.8 goals per 60 minutes is going to be a tough pace to maintain, but he has been around a goal per 60 minutes in previous seasons. We’re optimistic this is real for Necas, partially because of his chemistry at even strength with Andrei Svechnikov, who already has eight goals on the season.
We could give this to Boone Jenner and Jakub Voracek for being the only Blue Jackets players to score power-play goals through 12 games this season. Instead, we’ll give rookie forward Johnson his flowers for scoring six points in 11 games despite averaging just 12:33 in average ice time.
Will it continue? Yes, if coach Brad Larsen would be so kind as to give Johnson more than 12:33 in average ice time per game. Oh, and if he can pick up a point now and again on their moribund power play.
The Devils have multiple candidates for the small-sample superstar tag. With apologies to Jesper Bratt, we’re going with his sometimes linemate Hischier for scoring 12 points in 11 games and playing the kind of defense that’s already generating Selke Trophy buzz — bolstered by his 60% winning percentage on faceoffs.
Will it continue? Will it continue for Jack Hughes? Will it continue for Dougie Hamilton? Those are essentially the same question that’s asked of Hischier here, because it all comes down to health. The Devils’ captain played 70 games last season, his most since his rookie campaign in 2017-18 when he played all 82. The more he plays, the more he produces, especially flanked by Bratt.
The team’s top goaltender has been nothing short of brilliant at the start of the season, with a .933 save percentage, a 2.20 goals-against average and a 6-3-0 record.
Will it continue? Yes, because this is all looking a bit like last season. The Islanders are giving up around the same number of shots per game (32.5), but Sorokin’s save percentage is a bit better than last season (.925), when he had seven shutouts and finished sixth for the Vezina Trophy. This season, he’s fourth in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (0.870) and looking like he could end up as a finalist.
The Rangers center has been lauded for years as a playmaker, tallying 52 assists last season en route to 81 points. His prowess as a goal-scorer is probably a little underrated, despite popping for 41 goals in 2019-20. That average of two goals per 60 minutes is going to be hard to match, but with seven goals in 13 games (1.5) he’s off to a great start.
Will it continue? One assumes the Rangers’ 5-on-5 scoring is going to perk up at some point, as it’s down nearly 0.30 goals per game from last season. That will help his totals, which sat at 15 points in 13 games. One also assumes their power play, ranked 16th now, will also find another gear. The scary part: Zibanejad scored six of his first seven goals with the man advantage.
The quintessential small-sample superstar this season. Based on his first eight games, Hart has turned his career around with a 6-0-2 record, a .946 save percentage and a 1.97 goals-against average. He leads the NHL in goals saved above expected (15.9) and wins above replacement (2.66). A welcome return to form.
Will it continue? How much do we owe Hart’s start to the John Tortorella effect, as the curmudgeonly former ESPN analyst took his defensive style to Philly in the offseason? Perhaps not much. The Flyers give up the third-most shots against per game. They have an expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 of 3.27 in 11 games, and an actual goals-against average of 2.16, which underscores how good Hart has been. Will the rest of the system catch up to the goalie’s play, or is the Hart blockage going to continue in spite of the Flyers’ play in front of him?
Sidney Crosby is doing Sidney Crosby things, with 14 points in 12 games. But having Malkin scoring at a point-per-game pace out of the gate for the Penguins has been great to see, with seven of those points coming at even strength.
Will it continue? For all the “Geno is cooked” proclamations that accompanied him re-signing with the Penguins, it should be said that Malkin hasn’t been under a point-per-game pace but once since the 2011-12 season. He also hasn’t played more than 68 games since the 2017-18 season when he was 31 years old, so let’s all enjoy this while we can.
A quick check of the Capitals’ scoring leaders: OK, there’s Alex Ovechkin. There’s Evgeny Kuznetsov, as expected. And sandwiched between them after 14 games is … Dylan Strome? The former Blackhawks center joined the Capitals after Nicklas Backstrom’s hip surgery put him on the shelf indefinitely. He has 12 points in 14 games for Washington, most of it coming away from Ovechkin at 5-on-5.
Will it continue? The good news for Strome is that he sees plenty of Ovechkin on the power play, where he’s playing on the Caps’ first unit. Seven of his 12 points have come with the man advantage. Many Washington players have picked up points with Ovi and Kuzy out there on the power play, and Strome shouldn’t be an exception. Seeing him hit his career high of 57 points (2018-19) is feasible.
Central Division
Gostisbehere told me before the Coyotes’ home opener that he’s gotten his confidence back as a puck-moving defenseman, seeing his second campaign in Arizona as continuing “a chance to resurrect my career.” The 29-year-old defenseman had 10 points in 11 games.
Will it continue? Yes, for two reasons. The first is coach André Tourigny, who will keep Gostisbehere honest and push him to succeed. Gostisbehere said the coach pulled him aside after only three games to ensure that his game remained on point. The second is that Gostisbehere is a free agent next summer, so he’s playing for a contract in Tempe or elsewhere, which is always a motivating factor.
Some surmised that the Blackhawks’ tank would be a tidy affair this season. Some things have worked out to that end, like the team already having to turn to a fifth-string goalie. Others have not, like captain Jonathan Toews refusing to go down with the ship and scoring seven goals in 12 games.
Will it continue? Toews hasn’t cracked 20 goals since the 2018-19 season, but he’s healthy and producing with various linemates at 5-on-5 and on the power play. The biggest question for Toews isn’t whether this will continue, but perhaps where it would continue. Is this offensive outburst an audition tape for teams seeking to trade for the veteran for their Cup runs, assuming he’d save his no-movement clause (and the Blackhawks pick up a chunk of his cap hit)? Bottom line: It’s good to see Toews playing effective hockey again.
Nichushkin broke the hearts of some rival NHL analytics departments when he decided to remain with the Avalanche. The 27-year-old was certainly desired by several other teams. Instead, he’s off to the best start of his NHL career with seven goals in seven games.
Will it continue? This is the smallest of sample sizes because the injury bug nipped Nichushkin, and he’s missed time with a lower-body injury. Health aside, the biggest concern about his continued goal-scoring dominance is the ebb and flow of NHL special teams: Five of his seven goals have come on the power play. While the Avalanche will be near the top of the league on special teams, they’re probably not going to keep clicking at a 38.2% conversion rate.
You’d have to go back to 2017-18 to find last time Benn was sniffing around a point-per-game pace in the NHL, when he had 79 points in 82 games. He’s started the season with 11 points in 12 games, including four goals. That’s notable when you consider Benn didn’t score his 11th point last season until Dec. 6.
Will it continue? Stars have one of the best lines in hockey (Jason Robertson–Joe Pavelski–Roope Hintz), which allows players like Benn and Tyler Seguin to add secondary scoring rather than feel that top-line pressure. The problem is that Benn has only tallied four points at even strength while notching seven on the power play. Considering that imbalance, Benn’s bound to go down at some point from a production perspective.
This was supposed to be the season when friends and AHL linemates Matt Boldy and Marco Rossi took over the NHL. Rossi is on whatever list is the opposite of the small-sample superstars — constrained-cohort calamities? — with one assist in 10 games. Boldy, meanwhile, picked up where he let off last season with 10 points in 11 games, giving him 49 points in 58 games for his career.
Will it continue? Absolutely. Boldy’s even-strength production is his bread and butter. While his 17.1% shooting percentage will probably come back down to Earth, he’s shown an ability to generate offense even when his linemates might not be clicking.
Niederreiter is one of those players where it feels like he should have had a 30-goal season on his ledger already, but doesn’t. His best goal-scoring season was in 2016-17 when he topped out at 25 goals. He’s started his first season with the Predators with six goals in 12 games — consider that his sixth goal of 2021-22 didn’t come until Dec. 11.
Will it continue? Likely not. As much as Niederreiter can feel like that 30-goal guy, he’s actually the one whose ceiling might be in the mid-20s. Which is to say that we don’t expect him to be the next Ryan Johansen in Nashville, where his elephantine shooting percentage (23.1%) carries over through a full season.
Finding the “superstars” in the Blues’ stumbling start is a challenge, when dependable names like Ryan O’Reilly and Jordan Kyrou are having their struggles. But let’s give a little love to Schenn, who has 10 points in 10 games to start the season, having scored in seven of those 10 contests.
Will it continue? Schenn quietly showed some impressive offensive pop last season, with 58 points in 62 games. But that St. Louis team is not this one, in that they’ve gone from the best scoring season in franchise history to the NHL’s lowest-scoring team this season. Barring a second-half turnaround — and hey, it’s the Blues, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities — we’d fade Schenn on his continued offensive output.
Morrissey has been on the brink of an offensive breakout for years, before setting a career high with 37 points in 79 games last season. Through 11 games this season, he has 11 points — 10 of them assists.
Will it continue? Yes. Among the diagnoses from Dr. Rick Bowness — who is not a licensed medical practitioner, but has dabbled in surgery on this roster since arriving as head coach — was that the Jets’ defensemen had to produce more offensively. Morrissey’s even-strength output has been a direct beneficiary of that tactical change. Given Winnipeg’s scoring talent up front, there’s no reason to believe that will change.
Pacific Division
We knew Zegras could produce points, as he had 61 of them last season in 75 games. We knew he could score inventive goals, lacrosse-style and otherwise, in tallying 23 times as a rookie. But with seven goals in 13 games so far this season, “Z” is on pace for 44 goals, almost doubling his output year over year.
Will it continue? Probably not. Zegras has a shooting percentage of 24.1% and is actually shooting less on average per game this season (6.9 shots on goal per game) than last season (8.1). Hitting 30 goals in square in sight, but we’d be surprised if he cracked 40. Then again, it’s Trevor Zegras we’re talking about — expect the incredible.
One of the questions about Kadri after he left Colorado and signed in Calgary as a free agent: Was his first point-per-game season in the NHL a contract year anomaly or has the 32-year-old center leveled up? So far, it’s the latter: Kadri has 11 points in his first 11 games as a Flame.
Will it continue? While Darryl Sutter can occasionally put his lines in a blender, Kadri appears to have clicked with winger Andrew Mangiapane early on, and the coach has taken notice. That’s good news for this production continuing. The Flames aren’t the Avalanche offensively, but that might not matter: Kadri’s points per 60 minutes this season (3.7) is on par with last season’s (3.8) and that might just be where his game is at this point in his career.
Skinner has a 2-3-0 record through five games, but has put up strong numbers for the Oilers: .928 save percentage, 2.62 goals-against average and 5.6 goals saved above expected.
Will it continue? For the Oilers’ sake, hopefully! There are some reasons to believe that Skinner could be a sufficient backstop for Edmonton in comparison to Jack Campbell — he’s much better at high-danger chances, for example. But he’s only going to be able to maintain these numbers for so long if the Oilers continue to be so porous defensively, as they’re currently 27th overall in expected goals against at 5-on-5.
The Kings have been waiting for the breakout season for the No. 11 pick in the 2017 draft. With 14 points in his first 14 games, including nine goals, the 23-year-old appears to have arrived.
Will it continue? Sure, especially if Vilardi continues to flank Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar on the Kings’ top scoring line. They had a 60.3% expected goals rate through nine games together, and Vilardi has also been getting time with the top power-play unit. If they drop him down the lineup, there are still players with whom he can click like Alex Iafallo, but he might not maintain that point-per-game pace.
There’s something exhilarating about Karlsson showing this generation of offensive defensemen that the O.G. point-per-game guy can still dominate. He had 19 points in his hist first 14 games, skating 24:57 per night.
Will it continue? As usual, it all comes down to health for the two-time Norris Trophy winner, who hasn’t played more than 56 games since the 2017-18 season. But Karlsson has said he’s in the best mental place he’s been in for years, with COVID and other off-ice issues of less concern. He even got back to Sweden for the first time in five years. Happy in life, happy on the ice. If he’s in the lineup, we’re witnessing the Karl-enaissance.
The Kraken are having the season we all figured they’d have in their inaugural campaign — even if their goaltending remains squarely “meh” — and the arrival of Beniers is a big reason. The rookie has nine points in 13 games, including five goals.
Will it continue? We predicted Beniers would win the Calder Trophy as NHL rookie of the year because Seattle’s collection of wingers would provide him with plenty of offensive pop. Whether it’s Jaden Schwartz and Jordan Eberle or Andre Burakovsky and Jared McCann — or any combination therein — Beniers will put up points. What we need to see is some gradual defensive improvement, from the faceoff circle to 5-on-5 play.
Horvat had a breakout 2021-22, with 31 goals in 70 games, a career-best 1.4 goals per 60 minutes rate. To put his 10 goals in 12 games this season into perspective, Horvat’s goals per 60 is 2.4 in that stretch. That he’s done it bouncing around a couple of lines for coach Bruce Boudreau is even better.
Will it continue? On the one hand, Horvat is singing for his supper in a contract year ahead of unrestricted free agency, which usually portends good things offensively. On the other hand, there’s probably no way he’s shooting over 23% for a full season. He could top last season’s total, but we’re not thinking the 40-goal mark is in the cards.
Coming into the season, the Golden Knights believed they could replace injured starter Robin Lehner internally — they had to due to cap constraints, but they also believed in Thompson’s potential. So far, he’s rewarded that belief, with a .934 save percentage, 2.01 goals-against average and 5.4 goals saved above expected.
Will it continue? Yes, for two reasons: Bruce and Cassidy. The new Golden Knights coach has his team playing strong defense (2.08 goals against per game through 13 games, best in the NHL) in front of their goaltending. The Knights are fifth in expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. As long as that defense holds up, there’s a chance the Thompson has a shot at the Calder Trophy and the Jennings Trophy this season.
Jersey Foul of the week
From the NHL Global Series:
Nyt on pojilla tyyliä! 🇫🇮 #NHLGlobalSeries pic.twitter.com/0SUu8px2lN
— NHL Suomi (@NHL_fi) November 3, 2022
Synchronized FrankenJerseys to commemorate the Colorado Avalanche and Columbus Blue Jackets playing in Finland. Hopefully these were confiscated by customs before they were allowed to enter the U.S.
Video of the week
Brad Marchand (@Bmarch63): ✨Fashion icon✨ https://t.co/cJOOai6jOy pic.twitter.com/Wes5XCycVh
— NHL (@NHL) November 8, 2022
Brad Marchand celebrates the return of the Pooh Bear on the Boston Bruins‘ Reverse Retro jersey by saying “we’ve got a lot of twos on our team and they’re looking like tens tonight.” What a dude.
Winners and losers of the week
Winner: Precedent
The “what did they know and when did they know it?” timeline remains a bit specious, but I’m impressed by the reaction by the NHL and commissioner Gary Bettman to the Bruins signing Mitchell Miller. He wasn’t suspended. He wasn’t ineligible. His contract was registered by the NHL. And yet Bettman said he needed the rubber stamp in order to play in the league. Being an NHL player is a privilege, not a right. I’ve been saying for years that it’s OK to be selective in who you want to represent the league and the sport. Perhaps this is the start of a more aggressive approach.
Loser: Inaction
The Bruins gambled that their fans would be willing to grant Miller a second chance. They didn’t. That speaks to Miller’s biggest problem: That his apologies for his past actions weren’t underscored by genuine work towards contrition and to better himself, especially after the Arizona Coyotes renounced his rights shortly after drafting him two years ago. His agent, Eustace King, told me Miller didn’t have anyone to guide him, and that “one of the things we talked about with him when we first met him is he felt like it wouldn’t make a difference.” But as King said: “Not an excuse, but it’s what he felt.”
Winner: Blueland
Kudos to the Atlanta Gladiators for resurrecting the Atlanta Thrashers for one night in December. Now, how much would it cost for Ilya Kovalchuk to sign a one-day contract?
Loser: Blue bird
The changes to Twitter verification had wide-ranging implications on several levels. But there’s been little discussion of some pretty important fallout: reliable sourcing at the NHL trade deadline. What if our most dedicated hockey insiders somehow lose their blue check marks? Do we have to time or technical expertise to delineate between @PierreVLeBrun and @P1erreVLebrun? It’ll be utter chaos.
Puck headlines
Watch “The Drop”
On the latest episode of “The Drop,” our weekly YouTube streaking show, we spoke with Tomas Hertl about Pokémon and had a raucous roundtable with D.J. Bean from NBC Sports Boston and Leafs superfan Steve Dangle. Watch us every Thursday on the NHL on ESPN channel.
