Eric Karabell
Fantasy managers seemed rather pessimistic about OF Nolan Jones even before the Cleveland Guardians re-acquired him from the Colorado Rockies over the weekend. After all, who wouldn’t prefer to roster an outfielder playing half his games at Coors Field in Denver as opposed to, well, one playing in Cleveland? That’s an easy call.
Jones, selected by the Cleveland organization way back in the second round of the 2016 amateur draft out of a high school in the Philadelphia suburbs, was a nice surprise in 2023 — and anything but helpful last season. Now he loses the advantage of his mile-high hitting environment.
Still, even now in Cleveland, Jones deserves some attention after hitting .297 as a rookie in 2023, with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Jones produced similar home/road splits that year (a .928 home OPS, .935 on the road, 10 HR in each), so it wasn’t all about his home ballpark. The skills remain, health permitting. Back and knee woes kept him to just 79 games last season, and Jones struggled when he did play. Perhaps we should just forget about 2024.
Cleveland’s new full-time right fielder is going outside the top 60 in NFBC drafts, but there is a path to larger relevance, and his change of scenery should provide you with even more of a draft-day discount. If you were counting on OFs Will Brennan and Jhonkensy Noel, this is bad news.
Meanwhile, OF Tyler Freeman heads to the Rockies to presumably replace Thairo Estrada (wrist) at second base and then, who knows? Estrada, a fantasy sleeper who had his wrist busted by an errant pitch last week, may return in May. We thought veteran Kyle Farmer would handle 2B duties — and perhaps he will versus left-handed pitching — but Freeman, contact oriented and boasting tools, should play more. Freeman hit .223 over his first three seasons and 637 PA, with 11 home runs and 17 steals. His new home ballpark should amplify those numbers. Neither Freeman nor Jones are guaranteed to thrive, but each deserves attention after this move.
The rest of the MLB season begins this Thursday afternoon and there was much roster shuffling and news over this past weekend. Let’s analyze some of the biggest stories.
Another Jones story lacks clarity: The dreaded Tommy John surgery sure seems to come for most pitchers (or so it seems) and perhaps this is how the story ultimately goes for Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Jared Jones. After a solid rookie campaign, his valuable right elbow is sore, imaging results were not made public yet, and he is seeking a second opinion. We presume the first opinion was not a positive one. Jones was a top-40 fantasy starter in ADP one week ago, but obviously his value is diminished now that he’s missing some time. Unfortunately, he may end up missing all the time of the 2025 season.
More and more (and more) injuries: Tampa Bay Rays LHP Shane McClanahan, on the mend from his Tommy John surgery that cost him the 2024 season, has an inflamed nerve in his triceps and will miss the early April weeks, which doesn’t seem like a major catastrophe — yet. McClanahan, he of the 3.02 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 74 career starts, probably wasn’t making more than 25 starts this season anyway, so potential investors should not panic. A top 40 starting pitcher may still lurk.
As for San Diego Padres RHP Yu Darvish (elbow) and Philadelphia Phillies LHP Ranger Suarez (back), acknowledged as later-round fantasy contributors, both will start the season on the IL. The news seems less concerning for Suarez. He was awesome the first few months of 2024 before a similar lower back issue intervened. He is younger than Darvish. Stash away as Suarez may still be able to help your team in April. New York Yankees RHP Clarke Schmidt (shoulder) is also heading to the IL.
Orioles lose their top gun: Baltimore Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson (side) has seen his ADP fall a bit over the past two weeks as he nursed an injury suffered in late February. He will start the season on the IL. However, the Orioles claim that Henderson, who has 65 home runs and 31 stolen bases over his first two seasons, will not miss many games in April. In fact, Henderson (who slipped to the No. 14 spot in ESPN ADP but remained steady at No. 6 in NFBC) may actually end up being a draft day bargain. The Orioles can fill in with Ramon Urias, but OF Colton Cowser may lead off in the interim, adding more short-term value. Cowser, who hit 24 home runs as a rookie, is underrated to start with.
Other batsmen heading to the IL include Cincinnati Reds OF/1B Spencer Steer (shoulder), Boston Red Sox DH Masataka Yoshida (shoulder), Toronto Blue Jays OF Daulton Varsho (shoulder) and Athletics 2B Zack Gelof (hand).
Top prospect earns Boston roster spot: Kristian Campbell has struggled at the plate this spring, but he showed enough to make the Red Sox roster and, presumably, will start at second base. Campbell, only 22, offers the promise of 20-HR, 20-SB upside, and this news should send his ADP soaring. He is going inside the top 300 of NFBC (and in the top 250 of ESPN standard points formats), for now. This news may lead David Hamilton investors to move on, but that seems ill-advised. Hamilton, who stole 33 bases as a rookie in only 98 games and 317 PA, swiped three bases in a weekend spring game. He should find playing time at various spots. After all, SS Trevor Story isn’t exactly durable. Keep Hamilton around in roto if you desire the stolen bases.
Cardinals make the right move: Raise your hand if St. Louis Cardinals OF Victor Scott II greatly disappointed you last April. OK, my hand is raised. There’s no place for bitterness and animosity in fantasy. Forgive the guy. Scott has been one of the top spring performers, hitting .349 with 4 HR, 5 SB and improved defense. He all but forced the Cardinals to give him the center field job over the limited (and struggling) Michael Siani. The speedy Scott stole 95 bases in the minors in 2023 and he seems quite capable of 50-plus steals in the majors given the appropriate playing time. He seems to have the opportunity. Don’t assume Scott struggles again.
Trading places: The Atlanta Braves, presumably looking to give promising RHP AJ Smith-Shawver a rotation spot, traded veteran RHP Ian Anderson to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for LHP reliever Jose Suarez. Perhaps Anderson’s 20 walks in 20 spring innings were a motivating factor. Smith-Shawver rises past immediate sleeper status with this opportunity. Anderson’s value drops.
The Braves also signed veteran OF Alex Verdugo, once upon a time the disappointing return for Mookie Betts. Verdugo isn’t a great fantasy option, but he’s probably better than Jarred Kelenic, once a top prospect who hasn’t panned out. Verdugo may handle right field over Kelenic until Ronald Acuna Jr. returns in May.
